Chapter Notes

The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

Demography is the systematic and scientific study of a population. The term comes from the Greek words demos (people) and graphein (describe). It examines trends and processes related to population, such as:

• Changes in population size
• Patterns of births, deaths, and migration
• The structure and composition of the population (e.g., the proportion of men, women, and different age groups)

There are two main types of demography:

• Formal Demography: This is a quantitative field that uses mathematical methods to measure and analyze population changes, often to forecast future growth.
• Social Demography: This field focuses on the social, economic, and political aspects of population. It explores the wider causes and consequences of population structures and trends.

Demographic studies rely on the systematic collection of data through processes like a census (a count of all people in a territory) or a survey.

The Role of Demography in Sociology and the Modern State

The field of demography was crucial for the development of sociology. In the latter half of the eighteenth century in Europe, two major changes occurred simultaneously: the formation of nation-states and the beginning of modern statistics.

As modern states expanded their functions—such as public health management, policing, economic policy, and taxation—they needed a way to collect regular, systematic data about their people. This led to the rise of social statistics.

• The American census of 1790 is considered the first modern census.
• In India, the British government began conducting censuses between 1867-72.
• Regular, ten-yearly (decennial) censuses have been conducted in India since 1881. The Indian census is the largest such exercise in the world.

Demographic data is essential for government planning, economic development, and public welfare policies. For sociology, these statistics, especially aggregate statistics (numerical data about a large group of people), provide strong evidence for the existence of social phenomena. For example, the death rate is a social phenomenon that can be studied at a social level, even though it is calculated from individual deaths. Emile Durkheim's famous study on suicide rates showed how a social phenomenon could be explained by social causes.

Some Theories and Concepts in Demography

The Malthusian Theory of Population Growth

One of the most famous theories in demography was proposed by the English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus in his Essay on Population (1798). His view was quite pessimistic.

Malthus's Argument:

• He argued that human population tends to grow much faster than the rate at which the means of subsistence (especially food) can grow.
• Population grows in geometric progression (e.g., 2, 4, 8, 16).
• Agricultural production grows in arithmetic progression (e.g., 2, 4, 6, 8).
• Because population growth will always outpace food production, humanity is destined to live in poverty.

To control this imbalance, Malthus identified two types of "checks" on population:

1. Preventive Checks: These are voluntary methods to limit population growth, such as postponing marriage or practicing celibacy. Malthus believed humans had a limited ability to use these.
2. Positive Checks: These are natural events that reduce population, such as famines and diseases. Malthus saw these as inevitable and nature's way of balancing population with food supply.

Criticisms of Malthus's Theory:

• Historical Experience: The experience of European countries proved him wrong. As they developed, food production and standards of living rose even as the population grew rapidly.
• Unequal Distribution of Resources: Liberal and Marxist scholars argued that poverty and starvation are caused by the unequal distribution of economic resources, not by population growth. They claimed that an unjust social system allows a wealthy minority to live in luxury while the majority lives in poverty.

The Theory of Demographic Transition

This theory suggests that population growth is linked to a country's overall economic development. Every society follows a typical pattern of population change as it develops. There are three basic stages:

1. Stage One (Underdeveloped Society): Low population growth because both the birth rate and the death rate are very high. The small difference between them results in a low net growth rate.
2. Stage Two (Transitional Stage): This stage is marked by very high population growth, often called a 'population explosion'. This happens because the death rate is brought down quickly through better disease control, public health, and nutrition. However, the birth rate remains high because it takes longer for a society to change its reproductive behaviour.
3. Stage Three (Developed Society): Low population growth again, because both the birth rate and the death rate have been reduced significantly.

Common Concepts and Indicators

Demographic concepts are often expressed as rates or ratios to allow for comparison.

• Birth Rate: The total number of live births in a specific area during a year, per 1,000 people.
• Death Rate: The total number of deaths in a specific area during a year, per 1,000 people.
• Rate of Natural Increase (Growth Rate): The difference between the birth rate and the death rate. When this is close to zero, the population has reached the 'replacement level', where new generations are just replacing the older ones.
• Fertility Rate: The number of live births per 1,000 women in the child-bearing age group (usually 15 to 49 years).
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): The number of deaths of babies before the age of one year, per 1,000 live births.
• Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR): The number of women who die in childbirth, per 1,00,000 live births. [!note] High IMR and MMR are clear indicators of backwardness and poverty. Development leads to a sharp fall in these rates.
• Life Expectancy: The estimated number of years an average person is expected to live.
• Sex Ratio: The number of females per 1,000 males in a given area. Historically, most societies have a ratio slightly in favour of females (around 1050 females per 1000 males). This is because girl babies have better disease resistance in infancy, and women tend to outlive men. However, countries like India have a declining sex ratio.
• Age Structure: The proportion of people in different age groups relative to the total population. As a country develops and life expectancy increases, the proportion of older people grows, a phenomenon known as the ageing of the population.
• Dependency Ratio: A measure comparing the dependent population (children under 15 and elderly people over 64) with the working-age population (15 to 64 years).
  • A rising dependency ratio can be a cause for worry, as a smaller working population has to support a larger dependent population.
  • A falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth, as there are more workers relative to non-workers. This is known as the 'demographic dividend'.

Size and Growth of India's Population

India is the second most populous country in the world, with a population of 1.21 billion according to the 2011 Census.

Historical Trends in Population Growth:

• 1901-1951: The average annual growth rate was modest, not exceeding 1.33%.
• 1911-1921: There was a negative growth rate of -0.03%. This was due to the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, which killed about 12.5 million people (5% of the total population). This epidemic was a global pandemic known as the "Spanish Flu."
• Post-Independence (after 1947): The growth rate increased substantially, peaking at 2.2% during 1961-1981. Though it has decreased since then, it remains high.

Reasons for Changing Growth Rates: The primary reason for the decline in the death rate after 1921 was increased control over famines and epidemic diseases.

• Control of Epidemics: Improvements in medical cures, mass vaccination programs, and better sanitation helped control diseases like plague, smallpox, and cholera.
• Control of Famines: Famines were caused by poverty, malnutrition, and vulnerability to rainfall variations. As scholars like Amartya Sen have shown, famines were also caused by a 'failure of entitlements'—the inability of people to buy or obtain food. Improvements in agricultural productivity, communication, and state relief measures have drastically reduced deaths from famine.

In contrast, the birth rate has not fallen as sharply. This is because birth rate is a socio-cultural phenomenon that is slow to change. Generally, increased prosperity, lower infant mortality, and higher levels of education lead to smaller family sizes.

There are significant regional differences in fertility rates.

• Low Fertility States: States like Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal have Total Fertility Rates (TFR) below the replacement level.
• High Fertility States: States like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh still have very high TFRs. UP and Bihar are projected to account for nearly half of India's population increase up to the year 2041.

Age Structure of the Indian Population

India has a very young population, with an average age lower than most other countries.

• The share of the under-15 age group has declined from 42% in 1971 to 29% in 2011.
• The share of the working-age group (15-59) has increased from 53% to 63% in the same period.
• The share of the 60+ age group is small but increasing (from 5% to 8%).

This changing age structure presents India with a 'demographic dividend'. This dividend is a potential economic benefit that arises from having a large proportion of the population in the working-age group and a smaller proportion of dependents. In 2020, the average Indian was only 29 years old.

There are also regional variations in age structure. Kerala's age structure is beginning to resemble that of a developed country (with more older people), while Uttar Pradesh has a high proportion of young people.

The Declining Sex-ratio in India

The sex ratio is a crucial indicator of gender balance in a population. While historically most countries have slightly more females than males, India has had a declining sex ratio for over a century.

• In 1901, the sex ratio was 972 females per 1,000 males.
• In 2011, it had increased slightly to 943, up from an all-time low of 927 in 1991.

A more alarming trend is the sharp decline in the child sex ratio (for the 0-6 years age group).

• In 1991, the child sex ratio was 945.
• By 2001, it had plunged to 927.
• In 2011, it fell further to 919.

The lowest child sex ratios are found in some of the most prosperous states, such as Haryana (793), Punjab, and Delhi. This suggests the problem is not caused by poverty or ignorance.

Reasons for the Declining Child Sex Ratio: Social scientists believe the decline is due to the differential treatment of girls, rooted in a cultural 'son preference'. The key factors are:

1. Neglect of girl babies, leading to higher death rates.
2. Female infanticide (killing of girl babies).
3. Sex-selective abortions, made possible by the misuse of medical technologies like ultrasound to determine the sex of a foetus.

The government has enacted laws like the Pre-natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act and launched programmes like 'Beti-Bachao, Beti-Padhao' to address this issue. However, a long-term solution depends on changing social attitudes.

Literacy

Literacy is a vital instrument of empowerment, enabling participation in the knowledge economy and leading to greater health awareness.

• Literacy levels in India have improved significantly since independence. As of 2011, the overall literacy rate was 73%.
• However, there are significant inequalities in literacy.
  • Gender Gap: The literacy rate for women (64.6%) is 16.3% lower than for men (80.9%). However, female literacy is rising faster than male literacy.
  • Regional Variation: States like Kerala have near-universal literacy, while states like Bihar lag far behind.
  • Social Groups: Historically disadvantaged communities like the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes have lower literacy rates.

Rural-Urban Differences

The majority of India's population (68.8% in 2011) still lives in rural areas. However, the urban population has been steadily increasing its share, from about 11% in 1901 to over 31% in 2011.

The economic and social importance of the agrarian-rural way of life is declining.

• Agriculture now contributes only about one-sixth of the gross domestic product.
• Many rural people are now engaged in non-farm occupations (like transport or craft manufacturing) or commute to nearby urban centres for work.
• Mass media is bringing urban lifestyles and consumption patterns to rural areas, bridging the gap between them.

Rural-to-Urban Migration: Cities act as magnets for the rural population. The main reasons for this migration are:

• Economic ("Push" Factors): Lack of work in rural areas, and the decline of common property resources (like forests and ponds) that poor people once relied on for survival.
• Social ("Pull" Factors): The relative anonymity of city life can offer protection from caste-based discrimination for oppressed groups. It also allows people from dominant rural groups to engage in low-status work without social stigma.

Urbanisation has been rapid, with the largest cities (metropolises) growing the fastest. Over two-thirds of the urban population lives in 27 big cities with populations of over one million.

Population Policy in India

India was one of the first countries to announce an official population policy in 1952. This took the form of the National Family Planning Programme.

The primary objective was to slow down population growth by promoting birth control methods and increasing public awareness.

The National Emergency (1975-76):

• During this period, the government introduced a coercive program of mass sterilisation (vasectomy for men, tubectomy for women) to bring down the population growth rate.
• Large numbers of poor and powerless people were forcibly sterilised.
• This program faced widespread popular opposition and was abandoned by the next government.

After the Emergency, the program was renamed the National Family Welfare Programme, and coercive methods were no longer used. The focus shifted to a broader set of socio-demographic objectives, as outlined in the National Population Policy of 2000 and later the National Health Policy of 2017.